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We're still keeping an eye on what's going on with qualification for Dota 2 International 2023 in Southeast Asia. The third day of games and the top grid matches are ahead.
Execration and Team SMG will open the second round of the top grid with their clash. The game promises to be hot, as they play two contenders for the TI.
However, even among the two favourites there is a team with clear superiority at least on paper - Execration. The club approached The International 2023 - SEA Qualifiers with a significant margin of safety in the form of 592 DPC points. Not that it will make much difference at the qualifiers, where all teams are on equal footing, but having that many points indicates at least competitiveness at the regional level.
We are trying to figure out who will be stronger in this confrontation and who will be one step closer to participating in the main tournament of the year, and who will have to play in the lower net of the qualifiers.
Let's go.
Form Execration
Let's start the match analysis with the analysis of Execration's form. In this match the team will play in the status of clear favourites.
Bookmakers believe in the success of Execration. The odds for their victory are at around 1.6.
To be fair, the figure is quite working. All because of the aforementioned equality between the favourite teams.
In the first round of DPC 2023: SEA Upper Division Execration took the first place in the home league. The team played 7 matches and won 6 of them. This gave Execration the opportunity to qualify for the first Major e of the season - The Lima Major 2023, which, however, ended badly for them. In Lima, the top 1 team from their region finished in the top 16.
Later, they finished second place at the DPC 2023: SEA Upper Division and again made it to the Major. Then Execration "repeated" the success of Lima and finished in TOP-16 at The Berlin Major 2023.
The team also tried to play at DreamLeague Season 19 and partially succeeded: in the 19th DL season the team finished in the top 10.
- Execration roster: Palos, Bob, Tinom Shanks, Abeng.
The third DPC tour Execration finished on the mark of top-3 and again went to the Major . And again they had nothing to do there, because in the group the team played 5 matches in the draw and 3 lost, which did not allow them to enter the play-offs. In general - TOP-16.
Before the qualifiers for The International was the performance at the biggest commercial event of the year - Riyadh Masters 2023. In Riyadh, the team "surpassed" the indicators of their own international results - this time it all ended at the TOP-20.
In the first match, Execration played against Neon Esports. The match ended 2-0 in favour of Execration, in fairness to Neon they pulled to 38 and 40 minutes on the first and second map respectively.
Execration's most popular heroes
The most popular hero for Execration was Tiny (10 matches, 50% wins).
Mirana (6 matches, 83% wins), Visage (6 matches, 83% wins), Beastmaster (6 games, 50% wins), Batrider (6 matches, 33% wins) were also picked up.
Team SMG uniforms
We continue the match analysis with the analysis of Team SMG form. In this match the team is playing as the second number.
Bookmakers are not ready to believe in the renewed lineup of MidOne club. The odds for victory are at around 2.2.
By the way, it looks very good. The difference is minimal, which means we are in for a close fight.
Team SMG started the year with a "mediocre" result. The team finished top 5 at DPC SEA 2023 Tour 1: Division 1 and then played at The Arena Anthem.
The local The Arena Anthem ended prematurely for SMG, as the team didn't finish it. But they did finish the second round of the DPC.
At DPC 2023: SEA Upper Division Tour 1 MidOne and company took the top 3. This, by the way, was enough to get to The Berlin Major 2023. However, they didn't manage to show their game there.
Team SMG failed The Berlin Major 2023 at the group stage. The team played groupstage with the score 1-2-5, which cut off their chances to qualify for the play-offs. As a result, The Berlin Major ended with SMG in the top 16.
- Team SMG roster: MidOne, None, masaros, ah fu, Januel.
The last tournament before the qualifiers for The International 2023 was the third round of DPC. There SMG took their usual top 5, didn't go to Major, but at least kept a slot in the first league. However, it doesn't make any sense at the qualifications.
They made their debut at The International 2023 - SEA Qualifier with a duel against Geek Fam, especially being an outsider. After losing the first one, SMG outscored Geek Fam 2-1 on class.
Team SMG's most popular characters
The top most picked Team SMG characters is headed by Crystal Maiden. The character has appeared in the peak 6 times and has an 83% win rate.
Apart from Crystal Maiden, Disruptor and Underlord are also appreciated, having been peaked 5 times each with 80% winrate. There was also Skywrath Mage (4 matches, 100% win rate), Doom (4 matches, 75% win rate), PL, Viper, Slark, Riki appeared 3 times each and has 100% win rate.
History of head-to-head meetings
During this season the teams have met at least 5 times. The score of head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favour of Execration.
Predicted result of the match Execration - Team SMG
On paper there is a gulf between the teams, but you should not trust paper at the qualifiers for The International 2023. We have seen this at several qualifying tournaments, including China.
With such odds, the most logical option is +2.5 total.
Bottom line: +2.5 total.
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