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Day three of the LEC Winter 2024 play-offs is drawing to a close. There are 6 teams left in the race for the €80,000 prize pool and two slots at the Mid-Season Invitational 2024 and LEC Finals 2024.
Six teams remain among the contenders to win the first title tournament of the 14th season of professional League of Legends. Among their number are Fnatic and SK Gaming.
We will try to find out who of the pair SK - Fnatic will be stronger and at the end of the match will take the victory, and with it the right to continue the fight for the main prizes.
Let's go.
Fnatic Form
Let's open the match with an analysis of Fnatic's form. In this match, the Orange are playing as favourites, with odds to win at around 1.4.
Fnatic started their ascent to the LEC Regional Finals last season with an appearance at LEC Winter 2023. It wasn't a successful one, as the Orange finished in 9th place and didn't make it out of the group stage.
The following season, Fnatic gave one last chance to roster with Rekkles. They failed to use it, as FNC, after coming out of the group stage, lost in their first match against MAD Lions, thus ending the spring split at the top 8.
- Fnatic lineup: Oscarinin, Razork, Humanoid, Noah, Jon.
Two terrible splits resulted in major re-splits. ADC Rekkles and support Advienne left the band. In their place came Korean legionnaire Noah and experienced support Trymbi. The result was not long in coming.
Fnatic looked much better at the LEC summer split than at the two previous ones. The team managed to make it through the group stage and then made it to the top 3 of LEC Summer 2023, which allowed them to advance to the regional finals. Here's the truth, to the bottom set.
Fnatic played against Excel - the main opener of LEC Summer 2023 - in the match to advance to the Top 4 and won. They won 3-2 in a tense bo5.
In the match for the LEC Finals 2023 Small Final, Fnatic and BDS had a real fight (3-2), and Fnatic ended up here.
They also managed to beat MAD Lions, with whom they played for a place in the grand final. And again, the full-fledged bo5 with a score of 3-2 in favour of the Orange. But the grand final was not enough: G2 Esports beat Fnatic 3-1.
At Worlds 2023, Orange played to the best of their abilities. The club lost the first match against LNG Esports, and then outplayed the Vietnamese from GAM Esports. The last match on the way to a 1-2 set was a match against BLG, which Fnatic legitimately lost. Then FNC defeated C9 with a score of 2-1, and in the match for play-offs Ledge and WBG. The latter, by the way, became the vice-champion of the World Championship, so the result for the European club was excellent.
Fnatic will debut at LEC Winter 2024 with a match against Karmine Corp. Based on the experience of previous seasons, there is every chance to see the favourite (which is Fnatic) lose in that match. Next, they will face Vitality and this is where I would bet in favour of the Orange. That's pretty much how it turned out, except for the match against Karmine Corp: Fnatic closed two series, but lost in the match against SK Gaming.
Fnatic had a pretty good start to the regular season, but it got worse from there. Fnatic finished the regular season with a score of 5-4. The LEC Winter 2024 playoffs "Orange Longsong" with a very confident victory against MAD Lions. Next, Fnatic played against G2 Esports and looked good there, even managed to snatch the map, which no one has managed to do so far.
Fnatic's most popular champions
Jax (3 matches, 33% wins), Gwen (2 matches, 50% wins), Gangplank (2 matches, 50% wins), Jayce (2 games, 50% wins) are on the top line.
In the woods, Maokai (7 matches, 42% wins), Sejuani (4 games, 25% wins), Vi (3 games, 66% wins) were permanent.
The centre line was most often occupied by Sylas (5 matches, 40% wins), Ryze (3 games, 100% wins), Akali (2 games, 0 wins).
Zeri and Sivir peaked equally often on the shooter position. Both heroes appeared 4 times, but the former won all his games, and the latter - none.
Ashe appeared most often amongst the Spurrots. Archer was chosen 5 times and won 2 matches. Yuumi (4 matches, 75% wins), Heimerdinger (4 matches, 25% wins) were also frequently played.
SK Gaming uniforms
We continue the match analysis with the analysis of SK Gaming form. Here, one of the oldest teams in the competitive League of Legends will have to play as the number two, with odds to win around 3.
The main achievement of SK Gaming last season was the debut winter split LEC. The team, being among the outsiders and previously ranked top 8 at LEC Spring and LEC Summer, managed to not only make it to the play-offs, but also put up a serious fight against MAD Lions in the match for the top 3.
What followed was much worse. At LEC Spring 2023 SK Gaming were not so confident. This time they managed to pass the regular season and bo1 matches, but not the group stage. SK fell in the top 7.
- SK Gaming roster: Irrelevent, Isma, Nisqy, Exakick, Doss.
At LEC Summer 2023 SK Gaming almost repeated the spring result, with a slight improvement. They took the top 6, but thanks to the top 4 at LEC Winter 2023 they still reached the regional finals.
However, SK Gaming's achievements ended at the LEC 2023 finals. There they played the only match against BDS and lost 0-3 without a chance.
SK Gaming passed the group stage of LEC Winter 2024 quite well. The team played the regular season with the score 5-4.
In the first round of play-offs SK Gaming met Vitality. After a disgusting season Vitality cameback, and so that they managed to reach the second round of the upper grid, and SK Gaming went to the lower grid. There they faced Team Heretics in the first round and came out stronger, despite being nominal outsiders.
SK Gaming's most popular champions
The top SK Gaming picks were Gnar (2 games, 1 win), KSante (1 game, 0 wins), Camile (1 game, 1 win), Sion (1 game, 1 win), Renekton (1 game, 1 win).
Sejuani and Eliza are honoured in the forest. Both champions have appeared twice each and won both matches, but Vi and Kindred have lost their games.
The centre line performs on Sylas (2 matches, 50% wins), Kassadin (1 time, 0 wins), Azir, Syndra and Akali (1 game each and 100% wins).
From shooters - Zeri. The character appeared 3 times and won 2 matches, besides Varus (who lost the only match), Sivir and Lucian.
Karma, who has had enough of Karma, as well as Renata Glasc and Lulu. Yummi won two matches out of 3, Karma lost the only game, and Renata Glasc and Lulu won.
History of head-to-head meetings between Fnatic and SK Gaming
In the last face-to-face confrontation between SK Gaming and Fnatic, the former was stronger, but that was bo1.
Predicted result of the match SK Gaming - Fnatic at LEC Winter 2024
In this match I expect a good game from SK Gaming, but a win for Fnatic. After the "orange" took the map from G2 Esports, they are automatically stunned by their main competitor. These are the realities of the LEC.
Bottom line: Fnatic wins.
