Prédiction de match: Evil Geniuses - TSM {{Dota 2
DreamLeague Season 19 - Group Stage 1Welcome to DreamLeague S19, a tournament with a prize pool of $1,000,000. We open our series of analyses with a betting contest against TSM and Evil Geniuses, who will play in the first round of the first stage of the tournament.
Before the match analysis, we took a look at the teams' standing on the world stage. We checked the updated ESL rankings, we looked at the performance of the participants in the domestic leagues and now we are ready to start figuring out their way and their specific game in DreamLeague S19.
The prediction will be useful to anyone interested in following what's going on in the biggest commercial tournament outside of the DPC system.
Evil Geniuses game form - the new iteration of 'Evil Geniuses' in South America
We begin our review of the match and DreamLeague S19 itself with an analysis of Evil Geniuses' form. The team will face us in this match-up as the favourites.
This is confirmed by the bookmakers, who put odds of around 2.1 on Evil Geniuses' victory. This can be explained by the general level of Evil Geniuses' performance in the course of the year and in the first Major tournament of the season.
After the club's transfer to South America, Evil Geniuses have been rapidly gaining ground there: The team took second place in the first leg and a similar place in the second leg, which guaranteed them qualification for two Major tournaments of the season. The first such tournament, the Lima Major 2023, saw Evil Geniuses finish in the Top 6, which is a good result for a club that was stagnating before moving to a new region.
These results were achieved thanks to an experienced roster. EG managed to create a mix of Peru's brightest under one roof.
- EG for DreamLeague S19: Pakazs, Chris Luck, Wisper, Matthew, Panda.
In the roster, as we mentioned, assembled perhaps the best representatives of the region, who, however, can not rank in the top 1 of South America, Ledgeaya in the region beastcoast. Nevertheless, this does not prevent them from remaining a top team with a peculiar playstyle.
The most popular Evil Geniuses heroes on DPC 2023: South America Tour II
Most chosen EG heroes: Death Prophet and Undying (7 games and 71% of wins each).
Clockwerk has picked 5 times and won all matches. Riki (80% win rate), Snapfire and Timbersaw (5 games, 60%) have another 5 games each.
South America is stronger than North America in the 2023 season, and the Evil Geniuses themselves have performed much better in the Lima Major 2023, which will allow them to win this match. Agree with the opinion - your bet is EG win for 2.1.
If you're not confident of winning your DreamLeague S19 debut match, check out TSM's form of play. They may surprise you.
TSM's game form is a dark horse on the verge of leaving the club
EG's opponent in their debut match at the tournament is stuput TSM. They will play in underdog status.
Bookmakers do not believe in the team's success, which explains the pre-match situation. The odds on TSM to win are 4.
The estimate is based on TSM's successes for the year. They are so-so.
The team has been best in the North American region twice: winning DPC 2023: NA Tour I and DPC 2023: NA Tour II. However, on the international stage, TSM completely failed, dropping out at the Lima Major 2023 in the group stages.
Another problem for TSM is the club problem. There are rumours online regarding the imminent dissolution of TSM's eSports divisions, which may affect the morale of players motivated to stay in the club.
- TSM line-up for DreamLeague S19: Timado, Bryle, Kasane, Ari, Whitemon
Before the DPC 2023 Long Sogpeg, the team changed two players. The impact of that is hard to assess: it's like winning at home, but given the recent "merits" of North America on the international stage, it's hard to consider these victories as something outstanding.
Speaking of playstyle, there are similarities with Evil Geniuses. Love the aggressive Dota 2, but in terms of heroes the difference is significant.
Most popular TSM heroes
Most chosen heroes are Rubick (9 matches, 77% wins), Tusk (6 matches, 83% wins), Tusk (6 matches, 83% wins), Lycan (5 games, 80% wins), Beastmaster (4 matches, 75% win rate), Disruptor (4 matches, 75% wins).
North American clubs have historically played well in similar conditions, with bo2 matches in the group stages of big money tournaments. This, in combination with a wide pool of characters and the play of the Sammoners will help the team win. Betting on a TSM win for 4 is your choice if you agree with the above factors.
However, Evil Geniuses has a history of face-offs in favour. EG is doing better there.
History of head-to-head confrontations
The teams played each other in the Lima Major 2023. The Evil Geniuses were victorious there - in the group stage with a similar encounter format.
Result of the game
We recommend to take a closer look at the overall level of the teams in the DreamLeague S19 tournament. We see the safest bet as a +1.5 over TSM.
Bottom line: +1.5 on TSM.
TSM are the 13th team in the world rankings. They play well in the DPC rounds, finishing first or second in 1st position. But at the Lima Major, the team is not doing well at all. At the end of the tournament they are in 13th-14th place. In between Valve events they play BTS Pro Series S13, taking the top position on it in the form of the 2nd place, losing in the final to EG.
Evil Geniuses is the 6th team in the world rankings. Both DPC rounds only manage to finish in 2nd place, as there's absolutely no way to beat beastcoast, but the team is obviously stronger than bc, given the results of the Lima Major. EG managed to take the 5th-6th position there, though if they hadn't made any stupid mistakes, they could have got higher. Nevertheless, the result is still decent.
I believe equally in EG win as in a draw, but as the odds are better on a clean EG win, it will be more profitable to support that option.
I am a betting man, I live only by it. I dedicate all my time to it. I have no other interests.
I have been in business for quite a long time and have had some success with it. Believe it or not, it's up to everyone. But why not give it a try? Maybe you will like this life too!
Prediction: EG win!
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Evil Geniuses vs TSM: Forecast and analysis on the match between these teams in the group stage of DreamLeague Season 19. Let's try to pick a winner based on the teams' results in the DPC season.
Evil Geniuses - I will start with the fact that there are no worms on this team. Their stable players are Pakazs and Wisper, the main weakness is probably Chris Luck. They finished the season in defeat of beastcoast (1:2), they managed to give away cards to Infamous R, Qhali and Infinity, but they won the series. This is very important in the run up to the BO2 series.
TSM - the season started for them with a rather unexpected win over Shopify Rebellion (2-1), not a single loss overall and they are the best team in the second round of DPC. They only stumbled on one map against Wildcard Gaming. This squad may well show themselves well in this tournament. Impressive play from Timado and Bryle, they can definitely take the map away from EG.
Conclusions on Evil Geniuses vs TSM
Anything can happen in BO2, it's only the first round of the group stage and the teams can test many things. In such cases, it is better to catch Forces from underdogs at (+0.5). We need to study the form of the teams, draw here is quite a sane outcome - I would check TSM and one roll from them for 1.43.
Prediction: 1 card for TSM (+0.5) vs Evil Geniuses for 1.43
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Bookmakers & Statistics
À l'heure actuelle, la majorité des bookmakers considèrent à l'unanimité l'équipe TSM comme la favorite du jeu avec une cote moyenne sur une victoire de la somme de 4.535. Evil Geniuses chances de l'emporter sont évaluées avec une cote moyenne 5.171 par les bookmakers.
Statistiques de l'équipe lors des derniers matchs
Derniers matchs | Evil Geniuses | TSM |
5 matchs (victoires) | 4 | 5 |
10 matchs (victoires) | 8 | 8 |
Les joueurs seront certainement intéressés par les statistiques des rencontres personnelles entre les équipes.
Les participants à la bataille avant la réunion ont joué 8 matchs les uns avec les autres.
Dans ces matchs, Evil Geniuses a remporté 5 fois, TSM active consiste en 3 victoires.